It is predicted by many individuals online that the two frontrunners in the upcoming 2024 election will be former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The poll had been posted on PredictIt is a large online political prediction market, often referred to as a “stock market for politics.”
And currently, Trump and DeSantis are practically evenly tied in the market for predicting who will win the 2024 election.
Both shares are currently trading at 28 cents, meanwhile President Joe Biden sits behind them both at 23 cents.
“The Florida governor’s stock is rising. Less than 90 days ago, DeSantis’ 2024 shares were trading around 20-22 cents. Trump has been as high as 30 cents,” Casino.org reports.
Florida Politics noted, “DeSantis and Biden had been roughly comparable in terms of investor buy-in for the last few months, but DeSantis’ ‘Yes’ shares have been priced over Biden’s since May 15, suggesting that a trend may be emerging in this market.”
Trump seems to hold a slight lead over DeSantis on bets for him to be the 2024 Republican nominee, however it’s slowly diminishing.
Outside of that poll, however, one market continues to be consistent: bets predicting that the Republican party will beat out the Democrats.
Bloomberg details how bets on PredictIt are limited to $850 to skirt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, the platform will often run multiple variations of the same question — so that users can have much more riding on a single outcome.
“The site’s markets are mostly suggested by the traders themselves, some of whom are current or former campaign staffers who might be well positioned to answer questions such as ‘How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?’ or ‘When will Anthony Scaramucci’s role as White House communications director end?’” the report explained.
PredictIt co-founder John Phillips stated that the prevalence of politicos helps explain why the site so often gets it right. “Prediction markets function as well as they do and are as accurate as they are … because these markets, like any markets, attract people with superior information,” he said on a podcast in 2016. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
Timcast previously reported that DeSantis bested Trump as the top pick for 2024 in a Wisconsin Republican Party straw poll.
Over 38% of attendants chose DeSantis while another 32% decided on Trump. No other candidate made it into the double digit numbers on the poll.
WisPolitics reported that 43 percent of the participants said they’d want Trump to run again, while 32 percent were opposed to Trump running and 22 percent indicated they were unsure.
DeSantis has not ruled out a run in 2024.
And while Trump has not formally announced his candidacy, he has heavily implied that he intends to run for a third time.
